Trust issues. We’re much more likely to act in situations where we are sure. We make purchases based on trust. We also believe others based on their confidence. Statement in confident and strong, is much more likely sway our opinion, than a statement that is provided.
Probably too much confidence is the belief that when people are more confident about the result, which is probably correct in their predictions.
There have been many studies over the years that show that people tend to be overconfident in their estimates of how likely it is that the prediction is correct, or answer the question. But what causes self-esteem?
2008 paper Claire Tsai, Joshua Klayman, and Reid Haste organizational behavior and human decision-making suggests factor that makes people arrogant. They find that people have more information about the belief that it increases their confidence, even if it does not increase the accuracy of their decisions.
In a study in this paper, find experts in college football, and asked them to predict the outcome of some games. Names of schools did not play. Instead, people were given information about how the team played up to the season on many different aspects of performance that are useful for predicting outcome of the game (as the average number of steps which teams won their games so far that period).
For each game, participants were first given six measures of performance for each team, and were asked to predict which team will win the match and the point spread between teams. They were also asked to rate their confidence in the verdict. Based on these preliminary data, correctly predicted the outcome of the game about 63% of the time, and their average self-esteem was about 68%. This means that they were very confident, very confident.
Then people are given 6 additional measures of performance, and repeatedly cited again predict the outcome of the game and the point spread, and put their trust. This was repeated 3 times, so people are finally out of 5 phrases and 30 measures of performance for each game.
When people get more information, their overall accuracy has not changed much. After watching all 30 cows, only the right people to predict the winner of the game 67% of the time. But at the end of the study, 79% were confident that their answers. This means that their confidence grew as he gained more, but the accuracy remained the same.
One thing that seems to happen because people get more information that will go from concrete data on the general aspects of performance assessment team. So, based on several different measures of performance, the judge can now evaluate the effectiveness of the team run around the defense or attack.
Of course, that all information is ambiguous. Not every action tells the same story about teams. How to get more information, even if they are free to choose the information that is consistent with the story you’re trying to say. This way you will find information to help you confirm what you already believe is true. This tendency to seek information that supports the conclusion that you have already subscribed to is called confirmation bias.This confirmation bias will increase confidence in the judgments that you made.
It is important to realize that confidence and accuracy is not so related. We are often forced to make decisions based on expert opinions. There is a temptation to rely on the trusted expert to find out how much of an expert opinion, we have to rely on. Maybe we better look at past performance specialist, to our own opinion about how safe we must be about the correctness of his conviction.
